← Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Grand Archive Regional | Szeged, Pöttyös Zebra
decks
3
(13.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-7-3
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.7%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1341
· median 1480
· range 1052–1490
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1052
Q1 1171
Q3 1350
1584
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 13.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.1% | -7.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.0% | -10.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
